Spain's tourism sector eyes a lift from the Iran war, but costs could eat into the gains
Exceltur says demand is set to rise, though higher energy prices and weaker long-haul travel will limit the benefit
Spain’s tourism sector is heading into spring with cautious optimism, as the impact of the war in Iran is expected to bring more visitors looking for safer and closer holiday options. Industry group Exceltur says the so-called refuge effect is already helping Spain, with the country set to gain from travellers shifting away from destinations in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East.For 2026, Exceltur estimates that tourism in Spain could receive an extra €194 million in revenue overall once the positives and negatives are added together. The group says the war will bring about €4.329 billion in extra income from stronger demand, but that this will be almost offset by €4.045 billion in losses linked to higher prices.
Across Spain, the forecast for tourism business is now 2.5% growth this year, with the sector expected to contribute 12.8% of national GDP. Exceltur says that growth should be stronger in the second quarter, especially from May onwards and with more intensity in the summer months, when more holidaymakers from Europe and beyond are expected to choose Spain as a refuge destination.
The regions with the strongest spring outlook are Castilla-La Mancha, Extremadura and the Valencian Community, followed by Murcia and the Balearic Islands. Andalucía, Catalonia, Galicia and Madrid are also expected to continue growing, although at a more moderate pace. For Murcia, Exceltur puts expected sales growth at 6.3%, helped by the refuge effect linked to geopolitical instability in the Middle East.
Hotels are among the biggest winners so far. Sun and beach destinations are already seeing booking growth of up to 5.2% for this spring, while overall hotel sales are expected to rise by 4.6% during the season. City hotels are also positive, though less strongly. By contrast, transport companies face the biggest pressure, with sales expected to fall by 1.6% over the next three months because of weaker rail demand and the impact on some routes to Asia.
Exceltur’s vice president, Óscar Perelli del Amo, said the situation only holds if the conflict remains limited in duration and geography and is settled with lasting stability. “War is the worst enemy of tourism,” he warned. He also stressed that companies are deeply concerned about rising costs, especially in transport, energy and supplies.
That concern is easy to understand. Operating costs have risen by 9% in oil, 8.1% in energy and 7% in supplies, which is putting margins under pressure even as demand improves. Still, the first quarter of the year brought solid signs of recovery, with tourism GDP up 2.1% year on year and sales across the sector rising 4% between January and March.
Image: ronyescobarhn/Pexels
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